Kevin O’Marah is the co-founder and chief research officer at Zero100, an intelligence platform for C-level supply chain officers working towards building 100% digital and sustainable supply chains.
Trump wants to impose high import tariffs. How would this affect the US’s global trade relations with partners such as the EU or China? Would it, as Trump has said, invite more greenfield FDI into the US as foreign companies try to evade import taxes?
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Trump’s tariffs would significantly hurt trade with the EU and China, as well as others depending on if or when he gets it in his head to make an example of any particular country. Tariffs don’t require legislative approval which makes them an easy executive authority move. Trump has said he’ll use tariffs widely, positioning them as a negotiation tactic. This means that whether or not a specific tariff is in place, the mere threat of tariffs that could happen without warning for a given trade good coming from a chosen country will slow investment in cross-border trade. This will likely increase consumer prices and slow economic growth for the US and its trading partners. In the very long run, it will however increase investment in US-based manufacturing sites, whether owned by US companies or by foreign companies in the form of FDI.
How would a Harris presidency affect the energy and healthcare sectors?
A Harris presidency would marginally accelerate the US energy sector’s shift toward renewables. The effect would, however, not be dramatic since she is likely to keep Biden’s policies which incentivize green energy, and since the global energy market continues to steadily move away from coal and oil and toward solar, wind, and nuclear energy.
The healthcare sector under a Harris presidency shouldn’t see any meaningful changes at all. The original Obamacare passage made a difference by guaranteeing health insurance with a publicly subsidized option. Republicans, given a chance to repeal the law under Trump and with a Republican Congress, did not. Harris winning in November won’t change the fact that Americans would rather have the Affordable Care Act than not, but also that any kind of nationalized medical system is not in the cards. Status quo.
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By GlobalDataWill the election affect the rise of reshoring and regionalized production?
The election won’t affect the long-term shift toward regional supply chains. This has been a trend since before 2010 and it continues as China’s advantages in sourcing are balanced by other costs including supply risk, geopolitical uncertainty and sustainability concerns.
A Trump win would probably accelerate the trend for at least the duration of his term. It is possible, however, that Trump’s personal capriciousness could so rattle investors and company boards that large capex decisions are slowed down or frozen, which could paradoxically inhibit the rise of reshoring.
Will American efforts to curb Chinese semiconductor manufacturing be affected by the election outcome?
No. Both candidates are crystal clear on the geopolitical and economic urgency of improving US-based semiconductor manufacturing as well as design. At the same time, anxiety over AI as a disruptive technology will encourage either Harris or Trump to control intellectual property that feeds semiconductor innovation, especially as it flows to China.
Unions have a significant amount of power in the US. Just recently, the United Steelworkers Union had a major role in deterring the Nippon Steel takeover bid for US Steel. How will their role evolve under a Harris or a Trump presidency?
Unions are likely to fare well under either presidency. Both candidates support policies that will tend to concentrate physical assets like plants, warehouses, and even data centres inside US borders. This creates better leverage for unions by making strikes harder to break. Harris probably goes one further on this topic though, as she is likely to maintain Biden-era policies that favor organized labor.
A key watch-out for unions, however, regardless of politics, is that automation is going to continue to advance. An aggressive, expensive and restrictive union movement will doom itself to irrelevance if there isn’t some pivot toward skills development instead of just wage demands, job protections, and resistance to new technology.
Climate change hasn’t been a major topic of discussion this election cycle, however, it will continue to affect supply chains as the recent hurricanes in the US made clear. How are supply chain leaders preparing?
Supply chain leaders have not stopped working on decarbonization and wider sustainability missions since they started a decade or more ago. Extreme weather is a reality, as is regulatory intervention around the world. Supply chain leaders roll this topic into both resiliency and responsibility mandates. The election’s muteness on the topic has in no way cut into supply chain leaders’ climate change preparations. Decarbonizing Scope 3 emissions, designing and building risk-tolerant supply networks, digitising and tracking environmental impact data are all happening now and will continue no matter what happens in the election.
