It’s been long, it’s been bitter, and the end still seems a long way away. At some point, however, we will know whether it will be four more years for Donald Trump or if Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States of America.
Trump’s election in 2016 jolted the world. Coming on the back of a widely unexpected Brexit vote in the UK, the events seemed to usher in a wave of populism in the West. Trump had rallied against globalisation, taking particular aim at the Trans-Pacific Partnership – which was soon ditched upon his inauguration – and Nafta, which has since been replaced by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, largely considered to be more favourable to the US than its predecessor. Seemingly inspired by Trump, other major economies – most notably Brazil – went down the anti-globalisation, strongman route.
That globalisation was barely mentioned in the 2020 debate perhaps signifies a long-term victory for Trump, irrespective of the final result. What policies Biden will pursue should he emerge victorious remain to be seen, but in this look at what kind of president Joe Biden would be for foreign investment, Sebastian Shehadi notes that “in several key areas of domestic and foreign policy, Biden and Trump share more than one might expect. This is most evident with regards to the US-China trade war”.
Whatever the result, the US is not going to heal its divisions overnight. Even if Trump is defeated, Trumpism has established a foothold in the country. Should Trump emerge victorious, the message from the US electorate to the rest of the world will be loud and clear: America first. The implications for FDI will be huge. Either way, Investment Monitor will be here with in-depth analysis guided by data to make sense of it all.